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Sam Thursfield: AI predictions for 2026
news.movim.eu / PlanetGnome • Yesterday - 20:32 • 7 minutes
Its a crazy time to be part of the tech world. I’m happy to be sat on the fringes here but I want to try and capture a bit of the madness, so in a few years we can look back on this blogpost and think “Oh yes, shit was wild in 2026”.
(insert some AI slop image here of a raccoon driving a racing car or something)
I have read the blog of Geoffrey Huntley for about 5 years since he famously
right-clicked all the NFTs
. Smart & interesting guy. I’ve also known the name Steve Yegge for a while, he has done enough notable things to get the honour of an entry in Wikipedia. Recently they’ve both written a lot about generating code with LLMs. I mean, I hope in 2026 we’ve all had some fun feeding freeform text and code into LLMs and playing with the results, they are a fascinating tool. But these two dudes are going into what looks like a sort of AI psychosis, where you feed so many LLMs into each other that you can see into the future, and in the process give most of your money to Anthropic.
It’s worth reading some of their articles if you haven’t, there are interesting ideas in there, but I always pick up some bad energy. They’re big on the hook that, if you don’t study their techniques now, you’ll be out of a job by summer 2026. (Mark Zuckerborg promised this would happen by summer 2025, but somehow I still have to show up for work five days every week). The more I hear this, the more it feels like a sort of alpha-male flex, except online and in the context of the software industry. The alpha tech-bro is here, and he will Vibe Code the fuck out of you. The strong will reign, and the weak will wither. Is that how these guys see the world? Is that the only thing they think we can do with these here computers, is compete with each other in Silicon Valley’s Hunger Games?
I felt a bit dizzy when I saw Geoffrey’s recent post about how he was now funded by cryptocurrency gamblers ( “two AI researchers are now funded by Solana”) who are betting on his project and gifting him the fees. I didn’t manage to understand what the gamblers would win. It seemed for a second like an interesting way to fund open research, although “Patreon but it’s also a casino” is definitely turn for the weird. Steve Yegge jumped on the bandwagon the same week ( “BAGS and the Creator Economy” ) and, without breaking any laws, gave us the faintest hint that something big is happening over there.
Well…
You’ll be surprised to know that both of them bailed on it within a week. I’m not sure why — I suspect maybe the gamblers got too annoying to deal with — but it seems some people lost some money. Although that’s really the only possible outcome from gambling. I’m sure the casino owners did OK out of it. Maybe its still wise to be wary of people who message you out of the blue wanting to sell you cryptocurrency.
The excellent David Gerard had a write up immediately on Pivot To AI: “Steve Yegge’s Gas Town: Vibe coding goes crypto scam” . (David is not a crypto scammer and has a good old fashioned Patreon where you can support his journalism). He talks about addiction to AI, which I’m sure you know is a real thing.
Addictive software was perfected back in the 2010s by social media giants. The same people who had been iterating on gambling machines for decades moved to California and gifted us infinite scroll . OpenAI and Anthropic are based in San Francisco. There’s something inherently addictive about a machine that takes your input, waits a second or two, and gives you back something that’s either interesting or not. Next time you use ChatGPT, look at how the interface leans into that!
(Pivot To AI also have a great writeup of this:
“Generative AI runs on gambling addiction — just one more prompt, bro!”
)
So, here we are in January 2026. There’s something very special about this post
“Stevey’s Birthday Blog”
. Happy birthday, Steve, and I’m glad you’re having fun. That said, I do wonder if we’ll look back in years to come on this post as something of an inflection point in the AI bubble.
All though December I had weird sleeping patterns while I was building Gas Town. I’d work late at night, and then have to take deep naps in the middle of the day. I’d just be working along and boom, I’d drop. I have a pillow and blanket on the floor next to my workstation. I’ll just dive in and be knocked out for 90 minutes, once or often twice a day. At lunch, they surprised me by telling me that vibe coding at scale has messed up their sleep. They get blasted by the nap-strike almost daily, and are looking into installing nap pods in their shared workspace.
Being addicted to something such that it fucks with your sleeping patterns isn’t a new invention. Ask around the punks in your local area. Humans can do amazing things. That story starts way before computers were invented. Scientists in the 16th century were absolute nutters who would like…
drink mercury
in the name of discovery. Isaac Newton came up with his theory of optics by skewering himself in the eye. (If you like science history, have a read of Neal Stephenson’s
Baroque Cycle
Coding is fun and making computers do cool stuff can be very addictive. That story starts long before 2026 as well. Have you heard of the
demoscene
?
Part of what makes Geoffrey Huntley and Steve Yegge’s writing compelling is they are telling very interesting stories. They are leaning on existing cultural work to do that, of course. Every time I think about Geoffrey’s 5 line bash loop that feeds an LLMs output back into its input, the name reminds me of my favourite TV show when I was 12.
Which is certainly better than the “human centipede” metaphor I might have gone with. I wasn’t built for this stuff.
The Gas Town blog posts are similarly filled with steampunk metaphors and Steve Yegge’s blog posts are interspersed with generated images that, at first glance, look really cool. “Gas Town” looks like a point and click adventure, at first glance. In fact it’s a CLI that gives kooky names to otherwise dry concepts,… but look at the pictures! You can imagine gold coins spewing out of a factory into its moat while you use it.
All the AI images in his posts look really cool at first glance. The beauty of real art is often in the
details
, so let’s take a look.
What is that tower on the right? There’s an owl wearing goggles about to land on a tower… which is also wearing goggles?
What’s that tiny train on the left that has indistinct creatures about the size of a foxes fist? I don’t know who on earth is on that bridge on the right, some horrific chimera of weasel and badger. The panda is stoicly ignoring the horrors of his creation like a good industrialist.
What is the time on the clock tower? Where is the other half of the fox? Is the clock powered by …. oh no.
Gas Town here is a huge factory with 37 chimneys all emitting good old sulphur and carbon dioxide, as God intended. But one question: if you had a factory that could produce large quantities of gold nuggets, would you store them on the outside ?
Good engineering involves knowing when to look into the details, and when not to. Translating English to code with an LLM is fun and you can get some interesting results. But if you never look at the details, somewhere in your code is a horrific weasel badger chimera, a clock with crooked hands telling a time that doesn’t exist, and half a fox. Your program could make money… or it could spew gold coins all around town where everyone can grab them.
So… my AI predictions for 2026. Let’s not worry too much about code. People and communities and friendships are the thing.
The human world is 8 billion people. Many of us make a modest living growing and selling vegetables or fixing cars or teaching children to read and write. The tech industry is a big bubble that’s about to burst. Computers aren’t going anywhere, and our open source communities and foundations aren’t going anywhere. People and communities and friendships are the main thing. Helping out in small ways with some of the bad shit going on in the world. You don’t have to solve everything. Just one small step to help someone is more than many people do.
Pay attention to what you’re doing. Take care of the details. Do your best to get a good night’s sleep.
AI in 2026 is going to go about like this: